Sensex countdown to 100000: Big Bull's projection | Economic Times

Mumbai: Ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in 2007 had predicted that the Sensex would touch 50,000 in the subsequent six-seven years. While it has taken slightly longer to achieve the target, there are already predictions in place for the future summits for the benchmark index.Jhunjhunwala sees the Nifty touching 1,25,000 by 2030, according to media reports. Most of the future bullish predictions for the Indian equity market are centred around India’s economic growth potential. “(About) 1,00,000 would be quite achievable if we continue to see the kind of growth that we expect in India within the next decade. No question about that,” said veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius. Growth in the last few quarters has suffered as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. India’s GDP contracted a record 23.9 per cent in the June quarter. In the quarter ended September, the contraction slowed down to 7.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the Indian stock market plunged over 40 per cent in February-March of 2020 before staging a recovery of over 90 per cent since then, courtesy development of the coronavirus vaccine and easy monetary policies of global central banks.“Improving growth, the likely end of the rate cycle, likely persistent negative real rates and peaking correlations and concentration drive our portfolio strategy...While the market looks tactically overbought, we think India will outperform EMs in 2021 and are bullish on equities for the year ahead,” said Morgan Stanley India in its 2021 outlook report.While Morgan Stanley India estimated a bull case of 59,000 on the Sensex for 2021, the firm’s managing director Ridham Desai in 2017 had estimated that Sensex would touch the 1,00,000-mark in less than a decade. Raamdeo Agrawal, chairman, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, also expects the Sensex to leap to the 1,00,000-mark. “Five years back, it was 24,000-25,000, in next five years it will go to a lakh because there is long-term growth potential. Consumer, IT, pharma, private sector banks, private sector insurance and some of the automotive companies will do well,” said Agrawal. Sensex had crossed the 25,000-milestone for the first time ever on May 16, 2014 as the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance came to power at the centre with a sweeping majority. It has taken more than five years to double. The index crossed 30,000-mark for the first time ever in March 2015 after the central bank cut policy repo rates and it breached the 40,000-mark in May 2019 as BJP retained power for a second term.