Why Indian stocks usually do better post US polls | Economic Times

Mumbai: Indian stock indices are likely to rise further irrespective of the outcome of the US Presidential election in November if historical data is anything to go by.Data show the Sensex gained 3 per cent to 14 per cent during the six months after the US election outcomes in four out of last five occasions. What could go against the past trend this time is that the market has already risen 50 per cent in the past six months while economic uncertainties on account of the coronavirus pandemic remain.The post-election data for index performance for one month also showed indices gained in four out of five previous US elections.The 2000 and 2004 elections saw Republican George W. Bush being elected President, while Barack Obama was elected President in 2008 and 2012, followed by Donald Trump in 2016.Market strategists are of the view that India has nothing to worry about on geopolitical basis.“No matter who is the President, that person and the administration will seek to have closer relationships with important allies. (Joe) Biden has said he will organise a global summit for democracy, and it is possible that some in his party could view India in the same camp as Brazil, in other words a democracy that has evolved a strongly populist bent,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia Research at Bank of Julius Baer from Singapore. “They may be less well-disposed to that than the classic liberal democracies of Western Europe, for example, whereas Trump being a populist himself is fine with that. Still, a Biden administration wouldn’t seek to isolate India. India is perhaps the most important ally of America in Asia,” said Matthews.