View: Pandemic forcing rejig of ‘minimum govt’ | Economic Times

Disruptions in Parliament are so drearily routine that they have ceased to have shock value. The start of the monsoon session was no exception. Viewing the Rajya Sabha proceedings from the backbenches, it was exasperating to witness some MPs confuse the temple of democracy for a fish market.There was an exception last Tuesday when all sections of the Rajya Sabha agreed on a discussion on the Covid-19 pandemic. This was miraculously heartening. It suggested that there is at least a nominal acceptance of viewing the pandemic as the foremost national priority.Never mind the partisan sideswipes against either the Centre or state governments for blunders, miscalculations or worse, there is also a recognition that the pandemic isn’t going to disappear in a hurry. Having experienced the devastation of the second wave which the less vigilant didn’t fully anticipate, there is now a quiet determination that the third wave centred on the Delta strain will be met by enhanced capacities at all levels. In line with the global consensus, policymakers seem to agree that the most effective way of resisting a constantly mutating virus is mass vaccinations. This implies that the production and procurement of the approved vaccines and their smooth and equitable distribution needs to be handled efficiently and on a war footing.As of July 22, the number of people in India who have been given at least one dose is 41.78 crore. In absolute terms this is among the highest in the world but given India’s 138 crore population there is still some way to go before the next wave can be met by a wall of the vaccinated. As things stand, rural India remains vulnerable and there is still uncertainty over how subsequent waves of Covid-19 will hit children and teenagers. At the same time, there is growing reassurance that domestic production of vaccines will narrow the gap between supply and demand. There are reasons to believe that the strain on the public health system — particularly the deficit in the supply of oxygen cylinders — that happened in the initial stages of the second wave will not recur. The lessons of past shortcomings appear to have been quietly learnt.The pandemic isn’t entirely a medical problem. The compelling need to minimise human contact and prevent Covid-19 from spreading has had far-reaching economic consequences and, in many cases, devastated the livelihood of peoples and communities. The GDP decline is a statistical aggregation that doesn’t fully mirror the larger human costs of the disruptions in normal life.To prevent distress from being converted into deprivation, the Narendra Modi government’s ambitious programme of free basic rations has reached nearly 80 crore individuals, approximately two-thirds of India’s population. Additionally, cash subsidies to targeted sections such as farmers, construction workers, uprooted migrant workers, women, the elderly and the physically challenged have enabled some 42 crore vulnerable Indians get a little extra breathing space. This elaborate welfare initiative costing some Rs 1.7 lakh crore was only possible because the economy was relatively healthy when the pandemic struck. Economists may have divergent views of the relative merits of cash and in-kind handouts. However, there is no disputing the importance of Modi’s Garib Kalyan package in preventing social upheavals in this time of disruption.The past 16 months has witnessed an exponential enlargement of the state’s role in public life. Pandemic exigencies have diluted earlier commitments to a lean state. Yet, what has been experienced so far is only the beginning. In times of economic stress, public investment has invariably been used to bolster growth. As India limps back to normalcy, the pressure on the government to finance additional welfare programmes and pump both investment and subsidies into sectors that have been ravaged by the pandemic will be intense. Hitherto, the Modi government has preferred investment in capacity building infrastructure over handouts. But political compulsions may force a partial rejig of resources. Furthermore, if inflation is to be kept in check, the revenue deficit will have to be partially met with tax increases — unpopular steps at the best of times.Crisis management is all about a balance of risks. It is also a test of nerves. So far, despite some adverse global publicity, Modi has negotiated the choppy waters with composure, open-mindedness and without doctrinaire inhibitions. The enormous public trust in his leadership has contributed to his steadfastness.India has so far come out of the pandemic with cuts, bruises, and sprains. But imagine if Covid-19 had arrived in the lifetime of a fragile government headed by an unsure leader.